-- Wheat for September delivery fell 5.3% to $7.19 3/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday, with traders attempting to figure out the plans are for Ukrainian shipments previously destined to ship from port cities before Russia pulled out of the Black Sea trade deal.
-- Corn for December delivery fell 3% to $5.48 3/4 a bushel.
-- Soybeans for November delivery were unchanged at $14.20 3/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Developing an Alternative: CBOT wheat futures posted a steep decline Wednesday as European Union countries offered help for Ukraine grain shipments to leave the country, by truck if not by boat.
"The market may recognize that Ukrainian grain can get out of the country, travel through Europe, and then [get] shipped out via the Adriatic Sea from Croatia or the Baltic Sea by Lithuania," said Craig Turner of StoneX in a note. "It will certainly make Ukraine grain and oilseed cost more, but at least there is a way to get wheat, corn, and sunflower oil to the export market."
Trading has been choppy for wheat since Russia ended its participation in the deal allowing Ukrainian grain shipments to travel the Black Sea.
Questioning the Chances: The likelihood for near-term rainfall is rising in U.S. growing areas, said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage in a note.
"There are slightly better chances for rain in the upper Midwest and the wheat market is trading lower this morning putting additional pressure on corn prices," he said. "The forecasts have already been predicting the hot and dry conditions this week and the trade may have factored in the Ukraine situation for the time being, so prices are pulling back a bit this morning with prices consolidating."
INSIGHT
Nearing a Record: Production of ethanol in the U.S. rose for the week ended July 21, defying analyst forecasts and finding its highest level since October 2021. The EIA said that average daily ethanol production for the week was 1.094 million barrels a day, up from 1.07 million barrels a day reported last week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones had expected production to pull back, ranging between 1.05 million barrels a day and 1.06 million barrels a day.
Daily production is now closing in on a record high of 1.108 million barrels a day seen back December 2017. Production came within 1,000 barrels of that last October.
Tentative Stance: Soybean futures remained relatively steady this week, while corn and wheat have been choppy. Soybeans are less exposed to the developments in the Black Sea, and traders want to see what the USDA does with its forecasts in its next WASDE, with the previous report showing a large cut in planted acreage but leaving yields unchanged.
"It is going to be tough to break the beans in front of the August 11th crop report, given the lower acreage the USDA laid on us," said Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note.
AHEAD
-- The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday.
-- The USDA is due to release its monthly agricultural prices report at 3 p.m. EDT Friday.
-- The CFTC is scheduled to release its weekly Commitments of Traders Report at 3:30 p.m. EDT Friday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
07-26-23 1557ET
