The dollar rallies sharply 24 hours ahead of Jerome Powell's press conference.
The $ Index has completely reversed course compared with the previous day: down -0.35%, it climbed +0.6% on Tuesday (to 106.20), with differentials of +0.4% against the euro (which fell back to 106.75), +0.6% against the pound (which fell back below 1.25) and +0.8% against the yen (-4% in April -12% since January 1 against the $), back to its 34-year lows of $157.7 (everything is back on track for the BoJ after Monday's intervention).

The greenback reflects forecasts that have evolved spectacularly, as traders now see a 16% chance of at least one interest rate hike in 2024, and the ratio rises to 33% for January 2025 (this could be Jerome Powell's last month as FED boss if Trump is elected).
Expressed differently, 38% of traders now anticipate zero interest rate cuts in 2024, and the consensus forecasts just one rate cut in September 2024 (versus six to seven cuts expected at the end of December), and by a narrow majority.

On the macro-economic front, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index deteriorated for the third consecutive month in April, to 97 this month from a revised 103.1 in March.

This is its lowest level since July 2022.

The sub-index measuring consumer expectations fell to 66.4 from 74 last month, a figure below the 80-point threshold often heralding a coming recession.
There was also a flurry of figures in Europe (this morning), starting with inflation in the eurozone: it is estimated at 2.4% in April 2024, stable compared with its March level, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the European Union's statistical office.

CVS' GDP rose by 0.3% in the eurozone and the EU, compared with the previous quarter, again according to Eurostat.
Investors also took note of France's GDP, which grew moderately in the first quarter of 2024 (+0.2% after +0.1% in the previous quarter), according to Insee's first estimate (in CVS data), while inflation slowed to +2.2%.

In Germany, GDP grew by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2024 on a sequential basis, in volume and CVS-CJO data, according to a first estimate from Destatis, following a 0.5% decline in the fourth quarter of 2023.


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