One week after the FED's FOMC meeting, 3 sessions after the US "NFP", the easing in US yields continues.
In the absence of any notable statistics on Tuesday, US T-Bonds erased -6Pts of yield to 4.426%, while the "2-year" stagnated at 4.8100% (-1.2Pts), meaning that the inversion of the curve is worsening (a technical precursor of an economic slowdown).
However, a slowdown seems to have been ruled out by the OECD, which has raised its growth forecasts for the USA from +0.5% to 2.6% (after 2.5% in 2023).

Euro-denominated debt is also down -6pts, with OATs at 2.921% and Bunds at 2.417%... Italian BTPs are only down -3.5pts to 3.7700%, while Spanish Bonos are down -5.5% to 3.2000%.

On the statistics front, seasonally-adjusted retail sales volumes rose by 0.8% in March in the eurozone and by 1.2% in the EU, compared with February 2024, according to estimates from Eurostat, the European Union's statistical office.

In France, the trade balance improved slightly in March, according to CVS-CJO data from the customs administration, with the deficit narrowing to 5.47 billion euros from 5.61 billion in February.

This timid improvement reflects a 2.9% month-on-month increase in French exports, to over 52.2 billion euros, while imports rose by less than 2.4%, to 57.7 billion.
On the eve of the public holidays (Armistice and Ascension) and in the absence of any major economic indicators, the positive trend in force since last Thursday continues.
Across the Channel, Gilts are in line with T-Bonds and our OATs, down 6 points at 4.1670%.




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