Corrected Transcript

16-May-2024

Deere & Co. (DE)

Q2 2024 Earnings Call

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Corrected Transcript

Q2 2024 Earnings Call

16-May-2024

CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS

Josh Beal

Joshua Jepsen

Director, Investor Relations, Deere & Company

Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, Deere & Co.

Joshua Rohleder

Cory J. Reed

Manager, Investor Communications, Deere & Company

President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division; Production and

Precision Ag, Americas and Australia, Deere & Co.

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OTHER PARTICIPANTS

Jerry Revich

Nicole DeBlase

Analyst, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Analyst, Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Mircea Dobre

Jairam Nathan

Analyst, Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.

Analyst, Daiwa Capital Markets America, Inc.

Kristen Owen

Rob Wertheimer

Analyst, Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.

Analyst, Melius Research LLC

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MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION SECTION

Operator: Good morning and welcome to Deere & Company Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Your lines have been placed on listen-only until the question-and-answer session of today's conference.

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Josh Beal, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, you may begin.

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Josh Beal

Director, Investor Relations, Deere & Company

Hello. Welcome and thank you for joining us on today's call. Joining me on the call today are Josh Jepsen, Chief Financial Officer; Cory Reed, President, Worldwide Agricultural and Turf Division; Production and Precision Ag, Americas and Australia; and Josh Rohleder, Manager of Investor Communications.

Today we'll take a closer look at Deere's second quarter earnings, then spend some time talking about our market and our current outlook for fiscal 2024. After that, we'll respond to your questions.

Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com/earnings.

First, a reminder, this call is broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere

  • Company. Any other use, recording, or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the expressed written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited.

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Q2 2024 Earnings Call

16-May-2024

Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call.

This call includes forward-looking statements concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to uncertainties, risks, changes in circumstances and other factors that are difficult to predict. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8-K, risk factors in the annual Form 10-K, as updated by reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings under Quarterly Earnings and Events.

I will now turn the call over to Josh Rohleder.

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Joshua Rohleder

Manager, Investor Communications, Deere & Company

Good morning. John Deere concluded the second quarter with solid execution. Financial results for the quarter included a 21.2% margin for the equipment operations. Trends in the end markets that we serve remain broadly unchanged from last quarter. Ag fundamentals continue to abate, leading to more challenging market conditions in the back half of the year.

In Construction and Forestry, fundamentals remain stable at levels supportive of demand across most end markets. Demand shifts, coupled with proactive inventory management are reflected in our production schedules for the balance of the fiscal year, with many product lines anticipating retail demand under production to close out 2024. Notably, our projected financial performance in these dynamic market conditions demonstrates our ability to deliver better results across the business cycle.

We now begin with slide 3 and our results for the second quarter. Net sales and revenues were down 12% to $15.235 billion, while net sales for the equipment operations were down 15% to $13.61 billion. Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $2.37 billion or $8.53 per diluted share.

Digging into our individual business segments, we'll start with the Production and Precision Ag business on slide

4. Net sales of $6.581 billion were down 16% compared to the second quarter last year, primarily due to lower shipment volumes, which were partially offset by price realization. Price realization was positive by just under two points. Currency translation was roughly flat. Operating profit was $1.65 billion, resulting in a 25.1% operating margin for the segment. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and higher production costs. These were partially offset by price realization.

Turning to Small Ag and Turf on slide 5. Net sales were down 23%, totaling $3.185 billion in the second quarter as a result of lower shipment volumes, partially offset by price realization. Price realization was positive by 1.5 points. Currency translation was roughly flat. Operating profit declined year-over-year to $571 million, resulting in a 17.9% operating margin. The decrease was primarily due to lower shipment volumes, which were partially offset by price realization.

Slide 6 provides our industry outlook for Ag and Turf markets globally. Across all our major markets, we see continued softening in grower sentiment as the combined impacts of rising global stocks, lower commodity prices,

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Q2 2024 Earnings Call

16-May-2024

high interest rates, and weather volatility weigh on customer purchase decisions. Amidst this backdrop to rising uncertainty, we're seeing customers exercise greater discretion in their equipment purchases, which is reflected in the changes in our industry guide this quarter.

Large Ag equipment industry sales in the US and Canada are now expected to decline 15%, reflecting further demand reduction in the back half of the year, primarily in large tractors.

In addition to the aforementioned factors, increases in used inventory levels, particularly late model year machines, are having an impact on purchase decisions. These headwinds are partially offset by fleet fundamental tailwinds, including elevated fleet age, stable farmland values, and strong farmer balance sheets.

For Small Ag and Turf in the US and Canada, industry demand estimates are now down 10%. In the quarter, we saw notable reductions in our expectations for the turf segment, particularly riding lawn equipment, where high interest rates are impacting purchase behavior following several years of strong market demand.

In Europe, the industry is now forecasted to be down 15%, reflecting increasing grower uncertainty in the region. Wet conditions have raised concerns for winter crop yields, while elevated input costs are weighing on margin expectations. Despite the softening, arable cash flows remain at roughly 10-year averages. And dairy and livestock fundamentals are expected to improve due to stronger pricing amid lower feed costs.

In South America, industry sales of tractors and combines are now expected to decline between 15% to 20%. Brazil remains the largest affected market, with additional pressure stemming from strong global yields, driving down commodity prices. Both soy and corn margin expectations softened over the quarter. Conditions are further impacted by elevated interest rates and an expected strong recovery in Argentina production levels following last year's drought. Industry sales in Asia continue to be forecasted down moderately.

Next, our segment forecasts begin on slide 7. For Production and Precision Ag, net sales are forecasted to be down between 20% and 25% for the full year. The forecast assumes roughly 1.5 points of positive price realization for the full year and minimal currency impact. For the segment's operating margin, our full year forecast is now between 20.5% and 21.5% due to demand softening and proactive inventory management.

Slide 8 shows our forecast for the Small Ag and Turf segment. We now expect net sales to be down between 20% and 25%. The guide includes 1.5 points of positive price realization and flat currency translation. The segment's operating margin is now between 13.5% and 14.5%, in line with slowing net sales.

Shifting to Construction and Forestry on slide 9. Net sales for the quarter were down 7% year-over-year at $3.844 billion due to lower shipment volumes. Price realization was positive by roughly 0.5 point, while currency translation was flat. Operating profit of $668 million was down year-over-year, resulting in a 17.4% operating margin due primarily to lower shipment volumes and higher R&D and SA&G expenses.

Slide 10 gives our 2024 Construction and Forestry industry outlook. Industry sales expectations for earthmoving equipment in the US and Canada remained flat to down 5%, while compact construction equipment in the US and Canada is expected to be flat.

Industry fundamentals remain vastly unchanged with stabilized demand supported by visibility into the balance of the year, and markets continue to be healthy as the US government infrastructure spending further increases. Investments in manufacturing persist and single-family housing starts improve. Tailwinds are tempered by declines in commercial real estate and softening in rental demand throughout the balance of the year.

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Global forestry markets are expected to be down around 10% as all global markets continue to be challenged. Global roadbuilding markets are now forecasted to be flat to down 5%, as strong infrastructure spending in the US is offset by continued softness in Western Europe.

Moving to the Construction and Forestry segment outlook on slide 11, 2024 net sales remain forecasted to be down between 5% and 10%. Net sales guidance for the year includes about 1.5 points of positive price realization and flat currency translation. The segment's operating margin is projected to be around 17%.

Transitioning to our Financial Services operations on slide 12. Worldwide Financial Services net income attributable to Deere & Company in the second quarter was $162 million. Net income was positively impacted by a higher average portfolio balance, which was partially offset by a higher provision for credit losses and less favorable financing spreads. As a reminder, net income in the second quarter of 2023 was also impacted by a non-repeatingone-time accounting correction.

For fiscal year 2024, our outlook for net income remains at $770 million as benefits from a higher average portfolio balance offset a higher provision for credit losses and less favorable financing spreads.

Finally, slide 13 outlines our guidance for Deere & Company's net income, our effective tax rate and operating cash flow. For fiscal year 2024, our outlook for net income is now expected to be approximately $7 billion. Next, our guidance incorporates an effective tax rate between 23% and 25%. And lastly, cash flow from the equipment operations is now projected to be in the range of $7 billion to $7.25 billion.

This concludes our formal comments. We'll now shift to a few topics specific to the quarter. Let's begin with Deere's performance this quarter. We saw net sales decline roughly 15% year-over-year, yet operating margin came in at just over 21%. Across all business segments, we saw better-than-expected performance despite a more challenging macro backdrop.

Josh Beal, can you walk us through what went well for Deere?

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Josh Beal

Director, Investor Relations, Deere & Company

Yeah, absolutely, Josh. This is really a story of executional discipline across the organization. We were able to outperform on the top line as demand held up slightly better than we expected. In particular, we saw a resilient earthmoving and roadbuilding market that exceeded our expectations despite a tough competitive environment.

Turning to production costs. Freight came in solidly favorable year-over-year. However, as you noted earlier, we are experiencing offsetting headwinds and overheads as we adjust production to moderating demand. All that being said, it's worth noting that this quarter's performance with equipment operations margin over 21% ranks as one of the best quarters in company history.

We're encouraged by the start of the year and we're focused on executing our plan in the remaining two quarters.

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Joshua Rohleder

Manager, Investor Communications, Deere & Company

Thanks, Josh. That's a great summary and a great point you bring up. It's clearly been a strong executional start for the year, but we've revised our full year guidance.

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Q2 2024 Earnings Call

16-May-2024

What's driving the delta in the back half of the fiscal year?

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Josh Beal

Director, Investor Relations, Deere & Company

Right. The forecast change is really volume driven, primarily in our Ag and Turf segments. Underlying the demand decline is a tougher backdrop in global ag, which as you mentioned in your opening comments has continued to weigh on our customer base. Uncertainty has caused a decline in farmer sentiment, and as a result, we are seeing a softer retail environment today than we did just six months ago.

Primary crop margins globally are forecasted to be down, stocks-to-use are expected to be above historical averages, thanks to multiple years of favorable growing conditions and record global yields, used inventories have risen, and persistently high interest rates are impacting purchase decisions.

Despite all these headwinds, we experienced strong demand in the first half of the year, albeit down from the highs of 2023, which drove solid first half production volumes for Ag and Turf.

Given the environment that I just mentioned, we do expect incremental demand decline in the back half of 2024. Notably, our production volumes will decline more than demand in the back half as we're taking proactive steps to drive down field inventories. This is true for all of our major markets, South America, Europe, and also now for North America large tractors. We believe this approach best positions us to build the retail demand in 2025.

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Joshua Jepsen

Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, Deere & Co.

This is Jepsen here. Maybe, a couple things to add. First, I want to commend our employees for the work they've done to drive the overall decrementals for the business, despite the velocity of declines we're experiencing this year. We're delivering value for our customers and driving operating margins that are structurally better at this point in the cycle than ever before.

However, there's always opportunity to do better and we'll continue to take action on costs throughout the remainder of the year while still investing in our future.

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Joshua Rohleder

Manager, Investor Communications, Deere & Company

Thanks for that additional color, Josh. And you make a great point about the decrementals. We're definitely being impacted more significantly than usual by the unfavorable mix associated with higher margin products and regions declining more significantly.

But I think the key differentiator this year is around more proactive management. Both you and Beal) alluded to the rate at which we're bringing in production.

Cory, I'd like to bring you into the conversation now. You've been in the ag business nearly your entire career. What is different in terms of how we have managed the changing environment in this cycle?

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Cory J. Reed

President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division; Production and Precision Ag, Americas and Australia, Deere & Co.

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Q2 2024 Earnings Call

16-May-2024

Yes. Thanks, Josh. We are coming down from a period of high demand, and historically, we would have, as an industry, been slow to react to that change. Often, we would drive higher levels of field inventory to the detriment of the following years.

Within Deere, we're managing this year differently, which is a testament to the fact that both we and our dealers have learned from the past cycles. This is probably best exemplified by our decision to underproduce large tractor retail demand in North America in the back half of the year.

We ended 2023 with really low levels of large tractor inventory, but we think it's prudent to drive those levels even lower as we close out our 2024. The key here is that by staying ahead of demand changes, we're giving ourselves the optionality to react most efficiently to whichever way the market moves in the next year.

I think it's important to note that we're not implying that we know where 2025 demand will be. Frankly, this season's crops aren't even in the ground yet, so it's still way too early to opine on that. But we're focused on proactive management to ensure that we keep inventories in balance with demand. This is a key component to ensuring better structural profitability throughout the cycle for our business.

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Joshua Jepsen

Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, Deere & Co.

This is Jepsen. One other thing to highlight, beyond the current environment, and where we see the long-term strategy leading us, is related to technology and how we engage with our customers. We're starting to think about market share, not only as the number of units sold, but as the number of acres covered by Deere products and technologies as a percentage of total acres farmed.

In the future, we're going to continue accelerating the utilization of technology as we grow our precision upgrade retrofit business, as well as Solution as a Service offerings.

Our engaged acre journey helps demonstrate the progress we've made in delivering value for customers and making their jobs easier to do. In fact, at the end of the quarter, we now cover over 415 million engaged acres globally, and importantly, highly engaged acres, which, as a reminder, means three production steps and value- creating activities in the John Deere Operations Center are performed, make up over 25% of the engaged acres amount, having grown by double digits this past quarter alone.

While all parts of the world are seeing growth, Brazil is growing faster than North America on both engaged and highly engaged acres, which is a positive sign as we bring more technology to the market, in particular, with satellite communications coming soon. And customers there see increased value given the multiple crop harvest each year as well as the ability to improve efficiency, profitability, and sustainability in their operations.

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Joshua Rohleder

Manager, Investor Communications, Deere & Company

Those are excellent proof points. But one thing we haven't covered yet is costs. A key benefit of proactive cycle management should theoretically be the associated cost savings. We're seeing another year of positive price costs, but can you break down what's driving that positive differential for us?

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Josh Beal

Director, Investor Relations, Deere & Company

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Yes, definitely. That's a great point, Josh, and I'm happy to start. I'd begin by referencing back to what Josh Jepsen talked about earlier. Along with structural cost reductions, we continue to prioritize managing to our structure lines, which essentially means as production and sales come in, we pull levers to bring in costs.

Our speed in pulling those levers and the subsequent timing of those actions hitting the bottom line is a top priority right now. The outcomes of these efforts show up in the production cost bar in our quarterly earnings bridge.

Given that there's a lot that goes into that cost category, it might be helpful to walk through a few of the notable components.

Starting with freight and material, we're beginning to see the benefits of our ongoing cost reduction efforts. We're encouraged by the opportunity to get back significant cost on freight and logistics, as well as in our material spend. We're truly building strategic partnerships with our supply base as we jointly work to structure sourcing in a way that ultimately creates value for both parties.

Coupled with our dual sourcing strategies, we've been able to enhance supply chain resiliency in tandem with cost savings, which has been crucial to optimizing returns amidst lower demand.

The cost reduction efforts are important, given we have seen some manufacturing overhead efficiencies associated with managing to lower production levels. This references back to my comment on the timing of lever pulling and the timing of those actions impacting financials.

We're actively taking steps to manage costs as we see demand change, essentially rightsizing the cost structure for a given production level. But in a year when we're moving down in volume, we've experienced some inefficiency as we make those adjustments. This headwind is showing up in the production cost bar as well, largely offsetting the gains that we're seeing in freight, logistics, and material spend this year.

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Joshua Jepsen

Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, Deere & Co.

This is Jepsen. Maybe one thing worth mentioning is we also pull levers on assets, and that's evident when you look at our cash flow guidance change, which is down less in this guide compared to the change in net income. This is reflective of the fact we're starting to see our inventory come down following our production rate reductions in the first half of the year, creating a source of cash for the business.

We're continuing to manage working capital and expect further reductions throughout the remainder of the year.

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Joshua Rohleder

Manager, Investor Communications, Deere & Company

Perfect. And in the spirit of inventory management, I'd like to briefly touch on new and used inventories. Josh Beal, could you give us an update on where we stand today and what to expect in the back half of the year?

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Josh Beal

Director, Investor Relations, Deere & Company

yeah, absolutely. And I'll start with new equipment. In North America Large Ag, we're seeing intra-season inventory build as expected, albeit below industry levels, and inventory-to-sales ratio increases in line with

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historical norms. That said, given our proactive underproduction previously discussed, we expect these numbers to fall by year-end, with beginning 2025 inventory-to-sales ratios down significantly from where they stand today.

Furthermore, we expect to see the largest decline in new inventory levels to occur during the fourth quarter as normal year-end seasonal declines are amplified by our planned underproduction for the year.

On the used inventory side, we've seen total used units up year-over-year. While combines are up from decade lows, they remain below the highs seen in the last downturn. Meanwhile, used high horsepower tractors have increased more rapidly and are skewing more predominantly to later models, driving up the average value of the equipment. The trend that we're seeing in used high horsepower tractors was a key factor in our decision to underproduce retail demand in North America.

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Cory J. Reed

President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division; Production and Precision Ag, Americas and Australia, Deere & Co.

Hey, Josh, this is Cory. Just one thing to add here is, as you look at the industry as a whole, we've been relatively disciplined. Our Large Ag new inventory in North America currently represents less than half of the industry's unit inventory and significantly below the industry on an inventory-to-sales ratio basis. This is reflective of the discipline we're showing in this cycle.

And on the used side, our dealers are hyper-focused on used inventory, managing them appropriately to ensure that they maintain a healthy and a trade ladder for their customers. For example, this cycle, we put a strong focus on our dealer pool funds to help manage used inventories. Dealers accumulate these funds based on new equipment sales and then use them to create competitive packages to help move used equipment.

Our dealers prudently build up these funds over the last several years, nearly tripling their total available balance, which is now providing valuable support in the current market environment.

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Joshua Rohleder

Manager, Investor Communications, Deere & Company

Thanks, Cory and Josh. That's a good reminder on intra-year seasonality swings and how those play into our larger production and inventory management.

Shifting now to a region we haven't talked much about yet, I'd like to focus on Brazil. There's been quite a bit of buzz down there between first crop harvest, Agrishow two weeks ago, and the recent devastating flooding in Rio Grande do Sul.

Josh Beal, do you want to kick us off with a quick overview on the state of the business there?

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Josh Beal

Director, Investor Relations, Deere & Company

Yes, happy to. And definitely a dynamic market to unpack. And I'd like to first start by extending our deepest sympathies to those affected by the tragic flooding you mentioned, Josh, including a significant number of our employees, customers, and suppliers. We want to wish everyone well in the recovery, and I want to emphasize that the safety and security of our employees is our first priority as we assess and respond to the impacts of the event.

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Operationally, while we do have facilities in the region, we do not anticipate any long-term impacts to the business at this time.

Turning to the broader Brazilian ag environment. Soybean farmers saw profitability decline due to adverse weather conditions and global supply surpluses. That said, we do expect some favorable offsets with a strong cotton crop this year and a better-than-expected corn crop, which should provide some support to farmer sentiment for the 2024 season.

All in, ag equipment retail demand in the region continues to decline, driving the change in our industry guide. While production cuts came through as expected for the quarter, retail sales came in lighter than anticipated.

Nevertheless, we remain committed to underproducing retail demand in the region this year as we target year-end inventory levels, supportive of building in line with retail in 2025. Ultimately, we'll see more of the planned inventory reduction for the region in the back half of the year.

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Joshua Rohleder

Manager, Investor Communications, Deere & Company

Perfect. Thanks for setting the stage, Josh. Now, Cory, I believe you were just down there for Agrishow. Could you give us an update on what you saw there and a sentiment you were hearing from dealers and customers?

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Cory J. Reed

President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division; Production and Precision Ag, Americas and Australia, Deere & Co.

Absolutely. That sentiment was positive, Josh. This is not to say that we've reached an inflection point, given Josh Beal's comments earlier about retail activity. But I think the biggest takeaway was the excitement that we're seeing for our latest tech offerings. In fact, we're taking preorder interest for our Starlink connectivity solution and ended up oversubscribed by the first day of the show. We similarly sold out of our allotments for See & Spray Select and our Precision Ag Essentials bundle that was also a great success.

Fundamentally, we're at the forefront of bringing our full ecosystem of solutions to the Brazilian market, and our customers there are very calculated in their investments. They adopt when it makes financial sense, and given the double or sometimes even triple crop rotations they're able to achieve, the payback for much of our technology and equipment is significantly faster than in the North American market.

I'll take sprayers as an example. In the US, the corn or soybean farmer may only spray three times annually. But in Brazil, a farmer on a soybean and cotton rotation could spray as much as 20 times a year. This is why we're so focused on bringing our customers the solutions and connectivity that enables them to drive more value from their operations.

And the great thing is that tech adoption was only half the story at the show, at Agrishow. We saw equipment order interest rebound from last year's lows, including some of our most productive product offerings, like our new 9RX Tractors and X9 Combines. Adding in the strong fundamentals and demand for sugarcane harvesters, we feel optimistic about the future of agriculture in Brazil.

So while the competitive landscape continues to expand in the region, we feel confident not only in our ability to deliver additional value to our customers via our integrated solutions, but also through the strong dealer network that we've worked hard to build out. These dealers are providing industry differentiated support to our customers, helping to drive uptime and reliability required in an environment where there's no off-season.

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Deere & Company published this content on 16 May 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 17 May 2024 22:51:01 UTC.