Trade figures for April are up next, with Thursday's release to show whether exports have managed to return to growth after sliding in March, snapping a short-lived rebound and casting a shadow over recovery hopes.

Barclays economists expect that exports did manage to rebound, citing improved regional trade data, expansionary new export orders and the fading of a distorting base effect.

Credit growth data will likely show a deceleration in April due to slow local government special bonds issuance, and weaker household loans as property sales contracted further, the Barclays team said.

Travel and tourism numbers from the Labor Day holidays will also be watched for signs of a pickup in sluggish consumer spending.

Consumer and producer price data due over the weekend will also be looked at for a sense of how the world's second-largest economy is doing.

UOB economists suspect that the prints won't do much to ease concerns about deflation. "The latest

Chinese PMIs surveys suggest that the deflationary pressure has continued into April. Despite higher input prices, the selling/ output prices have stayed in the contraction territory," Alvin Liew said.


MALAYSIA


Bank Negara Malaysia, the country's central bank, makes a policy rate announcement on Thursday. Economists widely expect policymakers to stand pat, with little pressure to adjust policy settings.

Economists at Barclays said inflation remains benign and the government has yet to deliver a petrol-price hike that is being watched as a potential reigniter of inflationary pressures.

UOB's economists also expect no change. "Our call for the [overnight policy rate] OPR to be kept unchanged for the rest of the year is further affirmed by recent developments such as expectations for a delay in Fed rate cuts, persistent upside risks to Malaysia's inflation outlook and softer-than-expected advance GDP growth in 1Q."

Many analysts think central banks in Asia are unlikely to cut ahead of the Fed. Like many of its peers, the Malaysian bank is dealing with depreciating pressures on its currency and is unlikely to want to risk adding to that with a rate cut.

Malaysia's economy looks sound enough for the bank to bide its time before moving, Maybank analysts said.

"Economic fundamentals continue to underpin the MYR as we see it remaining robust," they said in a note, implying reduced pressure for BNM to cut rates.


INDONESIA


Southeast Asia's largest economy reports first-quarter growth figures on Monday. Market-watchers will be looking to see if the country has managed to keep up its fast pace of expansion.

While annual growth slowed slightly in 2023, momentum picked up in the final quarter of the year and expansion was seen across all industries.

UOB's economists think the 1Q print will come in even stronger than in the previous quarter, pointing to data suggesting that domestic consumption and investment accelerated in the first three months of 2024.

"This can be attributed to geopolitical stability during the election, followed by accelerated government spending early in the year," they said, especially related to campaign promises.

The Barclays economics team thinks growth will likely be broadly stable. But though officials have suggested GDP picked up, they doubt the rate will veer far from the 5% on-year mark.


LATIN AMERICA


Brazil announces a rate decision on Wednesday. Inflation data for April are due on Friday. Mexico announces a rate decision on Thursday, following the release of April inflation data earlier in the day.


(All references to days for Asian events are in local times.)


- Additional reporting by James Glynn, Dominic Chopping, Paul Vieira, Emese Bartha and Miriam Mukuru


Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com 


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05-05-24 1814ET