By Ed Frankl
U.S. jobs growth could stall in the second half of 2024, with signs of a slowing labor market, according to monthly gauge of employment trends
The Conference Board's employment trends index fell to 111.25 in April from a downwardly revised 112.16 in March, the private-research group said Monday.
"The labor market is beginning to show signs of cooling following a period of very strong growth since the pandemic recession," said Will Baltrus, associate economist at The Conference Board.
However, substantial job losses are unlikely to occur over the coming months, as employers are still facing labor shortages, Baltrus said.
The reading comes after Labor Department figures published last week that showed the U.S. added 175,000 more jobs in April, fewer than in March, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9% from 3.8% in the prior month.
The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment that aggregates eight indicators. When the index increases, employment is likely to increase as well, while turning points in the index suggest a change in the number of jobs is likely to occur in the short term.
Although the index has been on a downward trajectory since March 2022, the index is elevated by historic levels, suggesting a slowdown in growth to come.
Three of the eight components used for the overall index drove the downward reading, including a higher percentage of respondents saying jobs were hard to get.
While rising wages and high interest rates are raising the costs of doing business, "slowing consumer demand for goods and services ahead will be the primary driver of slower growth and an uptick in the unemployment rate ahead," Baltrus added.
Write to Ed Frankl at edward.frankl@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
05-06-24 1035ET
